What is UNFCCC and COP21 Paris – The 2 degrees Celsius mythology (Part 2) 什么是“联合国气候变化框架公约”和“巴黎第二十一届联合国气候变化大会”? – 一个2摄氏度的神话(第二篇)

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What is UNFCCC and COP21 Paris – The 2 degrees Celsius mythology (Part 2)
什么是“联合国气候变化框架公约”和“巴黎第二十一届联合国气候变化大会”? – 一个2摄氏度的神话(第二篇)

By Edward Shen | 沈埃迪

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The 195-nation UN climate group had adopted in Copenhagen/Cancún a goal of limiting the increase in average global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, which scientists to say is the threshold to avoid catastrophic consequences.  This 2 degrees temperature goal is likely to be reaffirmed by the Pairs Agreement.  According to the World Meteorological Organization, this year 2015 will easily be on course to become the hottest year on record and the world is also on course to reach the significant milestone of 1 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial era.  The US Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration released a report that shows 2015’s global temperatures are above the historic norm by 0.86 degree Celsius which is a further 0.22 degree Celsius above 2014’s peak and may turnout to be the hottest year since 1880.  The UK Meteorological Office has in fact shown that this year’s global temperature average has already surpassed that 1 degree Celsius level.

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Renowned climate scientist James Hansen and other scientists have already shown that a planetary temperature increase of 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial baseline temperatures is enough to cause runaway climate feedback loops, extreme weather events and a disastrous rise in sea level.

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Australian and New Zealand –based scientists’ study warned that the planet will be locked into thousands of years of unstoppable sea level rise from a melting Antarctic as temperature rise of just 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius will lead to a massive reduction in ice.   Many scientists cast doubt on optimistic computer models suggesting that the temperature rise can in fact be restricted to 2 degrees, Professor Sybren Drijfhout from Ocean and Earth Science at University of Southampton supported the view that “no safe limit exists and that many abrupt shifts already occur for global warming levels much lower than 2 degrees.”

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It is generally believed even a 2 degree temperature increase will trigger rising sea levels, engulfing Pacific Island countries, Bangladesh and cities like Miami, New York, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Mumbai.  Desert will grow and millions of hectares of fertile farmland will disappear.  UNFAO made the study and prediction that each degree of planetary temperature rise will bring about a 10% decrease in world food production.

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The UN announced in advance of the Paris talks that the amount of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere has locked in another 2.7 degrees Celsius warming at a minimum, even if countries move forward with the pledges they make to cut emissions, implying even the 2 degree Celsius goal is already unattainable.

To put the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels picture in perspective, its concentration has hit a new milestone to in excess of 400 parts per million(0.04%) in early 2015, a 30% increase in 50 years, and a 45% increase over pre-industrial levels.

It is generally believed despite the INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) carbon emissions reduction pledges made by majority of the 196 parties which have gathered in Paris and representing 97.8% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, we are still locked into a minimum of 2.7 degrees Celsius warming by 2100, and depending on the assumptions one uses in projections, the world could very well be heading to a 3.1 degrees or 3.5 degrees Celsius warming.  What then do the INDC add up to?   If all the INDC promises are fully met by 2030 and then extended for 70 years, Economist Bjorn Lomborg suggests that the entirety of the Paris promises will reduce global temperatures by just 0.17 degrees Celsius.

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As climate scientists have already claimed that disastrous sea level rise and extreme weather events can be caused by just a 1 degree Celsius planetary temperature rise, a coalition of nations most at risk including the Philippines, Kiribati, the Maldives and Bangladesh have appealed for the global community to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees.

While countries wrestle on issues of long term emission goals, how rich countries should help developing nations to cope with climate change with development funding and loss compensation, and how the international climate regime should work, the world is being ravaged by more extreme weather events propelled by Anthropogenic Climate Disruption (ACD).

This ACD induced abrupt climatic shifts is evidenced by 200 miles per hour hurricane winds in Mexico, first ever hurricane recorded in history for Yemen, alternate drought and El Nino rain storm in California, lack of food and water brought on by a drought crisis in Papua New Guinea, agriculture being wiped out by the worst drought in a decade in Ethiopia, irreversible retreat of ice cap in the Antarctic (causing rise in sea level) and the absence of ice for more months of the year in the Arctic (reflecting less sunlight back into space hastening pace of planetary warming), and ACD-fueled wildfires ravaged Indonesia and the Southern Hemisphere.

Kiribati’s President Anote Tong said his country could be uninhabitable within 50 years because of diminishing drinking water and crop failures due to encroaching sea water.  And the evidence of ACD induced extreme weather events goes on.

Prestigious scientific bodies of the world have produced one report after another that shows us the time for action was the day before yesterday.  While global leaders will appear as though they are doing something to address the single greatest crisis of humanity, the way that the leaders are talking, they might reach a workable agreement the day after the tomorrow that never comes.

What hope then can we pin onto the COP 21 now in progress in Paris?

To be continued in part 3…

在第十五届哥本哈根/坎昆举行的195个国家组成的气候大会上,设立了限制全球气温上升在2摄氏度以内的目标,科学家表明这是避免灾难性的后果的最低门槛。在2015年巴黎气候大会上应该确认及重申这个2摄氏度的目标。 据世界气象组织报告,2015年将是有记录以来的最热年,世界肯定正在迈向超过工业革命前时代的气温1摄氏度的重要里程碑。美国海洋和大气管理局发布的报告表明,2015年的全球温度比较历史标准已超过了0.86摄氏度,这一数值比较去年峰值也超过了0.22摄氏度,且可能成为1880年以来最热的一年。英国气象办公室发布的消息已显示出今年的全球平均上升温度已经超过1摄氏度的水平。

著名的气候科学家詹姆斯·汉森(及其他科学家们研究数据表明地球表面温度对比工业革命前温度基准线上升1摄氏度已足够引发失控的气候恶性循环,极端天气的发生及灾难性的海平面上升。

澳大利亚和新西兰的科学家们研究指出,哪怕只有1.5至2摄氏度温度的提升,会导致南极洲大面积的冰面的融化,引致地球将陷入数以千年计而无法阻止的海平面上升的情况。理想化的计算机模拟显示温度提升可以控制在2摄氏度以内,但很多科学家对此提出质疑。南安普顿大学的海洋和地球科学的教授塞伯恩·嘉佛补充另一个观点“并不存在安全极限保证,当全球的气温上升水平尚低于2摄氏度时,很多突发性的变化已经在发生。”

一般认为即使是2摄氏度的温度上升亦将导致海平面的上升,带来一系列的严重影响,如太平洋的诸岛国,孟加拉国及迈阿密、纽约、广州、上海及孟买等这些城市将会被海水淹没。 沙漠化会更加恶化,数以百万公顷计的肥沃农田将会消失。联合国粮农组织研究表明并预言,地球气温每上升1摄氏度将导致世界粮食产量10%的减少。

联合国早在巴黎气候会谈前就已经发出声明,现存在于大气层的二氧化碳量已经会导致2.7摄氏度温度的上升,尽管各国实现全部提出的减排承诺,这也是说控制2摄氏度以内的目标已经不可能实现了。

用现实正确的角度去分析大气中的二氧化碳含量,早在2015年初其浓度已超过400 ppm(0.04%)的新高点,对比50年前增加了30%,对比工业革命前提高了45%。

众所周知,尽管出席巴黎气候峰会的196个缔约成员大多数在「国家自主贡献预案」议题中做出碳减排的承诺,这些成员代表了全球温室气体排放量的97.8%,但似乎我们仍无可避免到2100年时要面对最低2.7摄氏度的上升温度。基于不同科学预测所用的假设不一样,全世界气候的上升温度很可能加剧至最低3.1度甚至3.5摄氏度。那么「国家自主贡献预案」是否有效果呢?事实似乎是如果缔约成员所有的承诺都可于2030年实现及延续70年,经济学家比约·恩隆伯格认为,巴黎气候峰会所有承诺只足以降低全球温度仅仅0.17摄氏度。

正如气候学家所声称的,仅仅是1摄氏度的气候温度上升,已足以造成灾难性的海平面上升和极端天气事件,故此一些濒临危机的国家已组成联盟,包括菲律宾,基里巴斯,马尔代夫和孟加拉国呼吁及要求将全球气温上升保持于不超过1.5摄氏度的上限标准。

当各国就长期减排目标,发达国家应该如何帮助发展中国家应对气候变化的资金筹集和损失补偿,国际气候制度应该如何运作等等问题争论不休时,世界正在遭受人为气候破坏带来的越来越多的极端天气事件。

这种人为气候破坏招致突然性气候变化的理论已经有据可依。今年墨西哥见到每小时200英里的飓风,也门发生第一次记录在史的飓风,加利福尼亚出现交替干旱和厄尔尼诺暴雨,巴布亚新几内亚的旱灾带来食物和水的严重短缺,埃塞俄比亚见证十年来最严重的干旱导致农业全面被摧毁,南极冰盖出现不可逆转的撤退(造成海平面上升),北极年中无冰雪的月份有增无减(反射更少的阳光回太空,加快地球变暖),以及人为气候破坏引致的火灾肆虐印度尼西亚和南半球。
基里巴斯总统安诺·汤表示,由于海水上升侵占陆地导致饮用水减少和农作物失收,他们的国家在50年内将无法居住。可见因为人为的气候破坏正引导着极端天气事件发生的例子数之不尽。

世界各著名科学机构已经发表了一份又一份的气候变化报告,告知我们采取行动应对气候变化问题的时间迫切性应该是昨天。虽然全球领导人看上去都似乎正在探讨采取某种方式来解决这人类最大的危机,但从观察他们如何去讨论解决方案的方式,要达成一个可行有效的协议,或许已是后天,而这后天可能永远等不到来临。

那么我们可否仍然寄希望于正在巴黎举办的第二十一届联合国气候变化大会呢?

第三篇待续…

资料来源:
http://www.theguandian.com/evironment/2013/dec/03/un-2c-global-warming-climatechange.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34763036
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/un-climate-conference/paris-2015-carbon-promises-lock-in2.7degrees-of -warming-un-says20151030-gkmuw5.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/natural/health-science/greenhouse-gases-hit-new-milstone-fueling-warries-about-climate-change/2015/11/08/id7c7ffc-8654-11e5-be39-0034bb576eee_story.html
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-mud-climate-20151017-story.html
http://www.latimes.com/topic/weather/natural-weatherscience-ORGOV000357-topic.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middleclass-east_34764971
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http://www.ipsnews.net/2015/11/one-third-of-papra-new-ginears-suffering-drought-crisics/
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/19/world/africa/ethispia-a-nation-of farmers-strains-under-severe-drought.html
http://www.the guardian.com/world/2015.nov/02/melting-ice-in-west-antarctic-could-raise seas-by-3m-warns-study
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/20/science/australia-antarctica-kill-climate-change-ocean.html
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060027430
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/14/pacific-nations-beg-for-help-for-islanders-shen-calamity-of-climate-change-hits
http://www.bystory.ap.org.article/2e9e5c3e2c644b392fd77a12457b009/senagal-saloum-delta-islands-frontleire-climate-change
http://www.mashable.com/2015/10/12/sea-level-rise-submerge-us.cities/#RIGW9qzq-ugy
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/abrupt-changes-in-food-chains-predicted-as-southera-ocean-acidifies-fast-study-20151030-gknd2g.html
http://www.time.com/4088640/indoresia-fire-health/
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/26/indoresia-fires-crime-against-humanity-hundreds-of-thousands-suffer
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http://www.smh.com.cn/environmant/climatechange/thegrphic-that-shows-why-2015-global-temperaturs-are-off-the-charts-20151021-gkf8bo.html
http://www.pnas.org/content/112/43/E5777.abstract

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