What is UNFCCC and COP21 Paris – The 2 degrees Celsius mythology (Part 2) 什么是“联合国气候变化框架公约”和“巴黎第二十一届联合国气候变化大会”? – 一个2摄氏度的神话(第二篇)

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What is UNFCCC and COP21 Paris – The 2 degrees Celsius mythology (Part 2)
什么是“联合国气候变化框架公约”和“巴黎第二十一届联合国气候变化大会”? – 一个2摄氏度的神话(第二篇)

By Edward Shen | 沈埃迪


The 195-nation UN climate group had adopted in Copenhagen/Cancún a goal of limiting the increase in average global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, which scientists to say is the threshold to avoid catastrophic consequences.  This 2 degrees temperature goal is likely to be reaffirmed by the Pairs Agreement.  According to the World Meteorological Organization, this year 2015 will easily be on course to become the hottest year on record and the world is also on course to reach the significant milestone of 1 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial era.  The US Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration released a report that shows 2015’s global temperatures are above the historic norm by 0.86 degree Celsius which is a further 0.22 degree Celsius above 2014’s peak and may turnout to be the hottest year since 1880.  The UK Meteorological Office has in fact shown that this year’s global temperature average has already surpassed that 1 degree Celsius level.


Renowned climate scientist James Hansen and other scientists have already shown that a planetary temperature increase of 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial baseline temperatures is enough to cause runaway climate feedback loops, extreme weather events and a disastrous rise in sea level.


Australian and New Zealand –based scientists’ study warned that the planet will be locked into thousands of years of unstoppable sea level rise from a melting Antarctic as temperature rise of just 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius will lead to a massive reduction in ice.   Many scientists cast doubt on optimistic computer models suggesting that the temperature rise can in fact be restricted to 2 degrees, Professor Sybren Drijfhout from Ocean and Earth Science at University of Southampton supported the view that “no safe limit exists and that many abrupt shifts already occur for global warming levels much lower than 2 degrees.”


It is generally believed even a 2 degree temperature increase will trigger rising sea levels, engulfing Pacific Island countries, Bangladesh and cities like Miami, New York, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Mumbai.  Desert will grow and millions of hectares of fertile farmland will disappear.  UNFAO made the study and prediction that each degree of planetary temperature rise will bring about a 10% decrease in world food production.


The UN announced in advance of the Paris talks that the amount of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere has locked in another 2.7 degrees Celsius warming at a minimum, even if countries move forward with the pledges they make to cut emissions, implying even the 2 degree Celsius goal is already unattainable.

To put the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels picture in perspective, its concentration has hit a new milestone to in excess of 400 parts per million(0.04%) in early 2015, a 30% increase in 50 years, and a 45% increase over pre-industrial levels.

It is generally believed despite the INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) carbon emissions reduction pledges made by majority of the 196 parties which have gathered in Paris and representing 97.8% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, we are still locked into a minimum of 2.7 degrees Celsius warming by 2100, and depending on the assumptions one uses in projections, the world could very well be heading to a 3.1 degrees or 3.5 degrees Celsius warming.  What then do the INDC add up to?   If all the INDC promises are fully met by 2030 and then extended for 70 years, Economist Bjorn Lomborg suggests that the entirety of the Paris promises will reduce global temperatures by just 0.17 degrees Celsius.


As climate scientists have already claimed that disastrous sea level rise and extreme weather events can be caused by just a 1 degree Celsius planetary temperature rise, a coalition of nations most at risk including the Philippines, Kiribati, the Maldives and Bangladesh have appealed for the global community to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees.

While countries wrestle on issues of long term emission goals, how rich countries should help developing nations to cope with climate change with development funding and loss compensation, and how the international climate regime should work, the world is being ravaged by more extreme weather events propelled by Anthropogenic Climate Disruption (ACD).

This ACD induced abrupt climatic shifts is evidenced by 200 miles per hour hurricane winds in Mexico, first ever hurricane recorded in history for Yemen, alternate drought and El Nino rain storm in California, lack of food and water brought on by a drought crisis in Papua New Guinea, agriculture being wiped out by the worst drought in a decade in Ethiopia, irreversible retreat of ice cap in the Antarctic (causing rise in sea level) and the absence of ice for more months of the year in the Arctic (reflecting less sunlight back into space hastening pace of planetary warming), and ACD-fueled wildfires ravaged Indonesia and the Southern Hemisphere.

Kiribati’s President Anote Tong said his country could be uninhabitable within 50 years because of diminishing drinking water and crop failures due to encroaching sea water.  And the evidence of ACD induced extreme weather events goes on.

Prestigious scientific bodies of the world have produced one report after another that shows us the time for action was the day before yesterday.  While global leaders will appear as though they are doing something to address the single greatest crisis of humanity, the way that the leaders are talking, they might reach a workable agreement the day after the tomorrow that never comes.

What hope then can we pin onto the COP 21 now in progress in Paris?

To be continued in part 3…

在第十五届哥本哈根/坎昆举行的195个国家组成的气候大会上,设立了限制全球气温上升在2摄氏度以内的目标,科学家表明这是避免灾难性的后果的最低门槛。在2015年巴黎气候大会上应该确认及重申这个2摄氏度的目标。 据世界气象组织报告,2015年将是有记录以来的最热年,世界肯定正在迈向超过工业革命前时代的气温1摄氏度的重要里程碑。美国海洋和大气管理局发布的报告表明,2015年的全球温度比较历史标准已超过了0.86摄氏度,这一数值比较去年峰值也超过了0.22摄氏度,且可能成为1880年以来最热的一年。英国气象办公室发布的消息已显示出今年的全球平均上升温度已经超过1摄氏度的水平。



一般认为即使是2摄氏度的温度上升亦将导致海平面的上升,带来一系列的严重影响,如太平洋的诸岛国,孟加拉国及迈阿密、纽约、广州、上海及孟买等这些城市将会被海水淹没。 沙漠化会更加恶化,数以百万公顷计的肥沃农田将会消失。联合国粮农组织研究表明并预言,地球气温每上升1摄氏度将导致世界粮食产量10%的减少。


用现实正确的角度去分析大气中的二氧化碳含量,早在2015年初其浓度已超过400 ppm(0.04%)的新高点,对比50年前增加了30%,对比工业革命前提高了45%。








http://www.smh.com.au/environment/un-climate-conference/paris-2015-carbon-promises-lock-in2.7degrees-of -warming-un-says20151030-gkmuw5.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/19/world/africa/ethispia-a-nation-of farmers-strains-under-severe-drought.html
http://www.the guardian.com/world/2015.nov/02/melting-ice-in-west-antarctic-could-raise seas-by-3m-warns-study


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