What is UNFCCC and COP21 Paris – Is it too little too late? (Part 3) 什么是“联合国气候变化框架公约”和“巴黎第二十一届联合国气候变化大会”? – 现在才亡羊补牢是否效力不足又太迟?(第三篇)

By Edward Shen | 沈埃迪

Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement on climate change on 12 December 2015, it was hailed as “a monumental triumph for people and our planet” by United Nations Secretary–General Ban Ki-moon.

Ban Ki-Moon

For the first time, 195 Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), representing near universal membership, reached solid agreement on all key points. But is it too little too late? How is the Paris approach different from the previous attempts to reach agreement?

It took 24 years for the evolution of the global climate effort to reach Paris. (Fig. 1)

Chart1_FB

Negotiations started in 1991 and established in 1992 at the Rio Convention a basic system of governance but with no binding emission targets (Act Ⅰ). The 1997 Kyoto Protocol adopted a top-down regulatory approach with agreed limits on GHG emission, legally binding detailed rules, rigorous accounting and compliance mechanism, and with strong differentiation between developed and developing countries. Kyoto adopted strong legal and technical rigor but resulted in shrinking participation with reduction targets covered only 13% of global emissions (ActⅡ). (Fig. 2)

Climate Change Talk - King's College London
Copenhagen/Cancún 2009 took on a bottom-up approach with parallel nonbinding framework established via political agreement at Copenhagen followed by a set of COP decisions at Cancún. Copenhagen/Cancún invited broad participation but settled for low ambition with emission pledge falling well short of 2℃ pathway (Act Ⅲ). (Fig. 3)

Climate Change Talk - King's College London

ActⅣ was setoff by the 2011 Durban Platform for Enhanced Action with agreement to be reached by COP21 at Paris and implementation from 2020. What then was envisaged for 2015 Paris that was not achievable by the earlier summits? What strategy and role was played out by the international climate regime this time?

It becomes clear from this evolution process that there are but three roles the international climate regime can play out.

1. A prescriptive model that imposes obligations that make some countries better off and others worst off. A prescriptive model not necessarily would produce compliance.

2. A contractual model memorializes commitments by States in exchange for commitments by other. As climate change issues are driven by domestic politics, for any agreement to succeed, it has to leave all participants better off and are acceptable domestically.

3. A facilitative model has to be based on States willing to take action on their own. The international regime can help catalyzes, encourage and reinforce action through assistance and by soft pressure through transparency in implementation.

It was obvious then that the Paris summit needs to adopt a hybrid approach that combines the top-down and bottom-up approach. On the one hand it should allow national flexibility to promote participation, encourage experimentation and enhance greater ambition, on the other hand it should adopt prescriptive International Rules to attain transparency, accountability and reciprocity. Such ground work was laid down before Paris, in Warsaw in 2013 and in Lima in 2014 where parties were invited to communicate their “intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs)” to the new agreement in advance of Paris. Hence Paris’s outcome was a package with a number of different elements- a core agreement which will be a treaty within the meaning of international law, an ancillary instrument to house NDCs, and COP decisions adopted at COP21 or thereafter.

So what are the most significant aspects about the new Paris agreement?
The agreement sends out a positive message to the world that countries are serious about addressing climate change. The agreement provides a way forward to limit temperature rise to well below 2 degrees, may be even 1.5. It is an ambitious, dynamic and universal agreement that covers all countries and all emissions and contains a transparency framework to build mutual trust and confidence. The agreement requires all countries to take action, while recognizing their differing situations and circumstances. It provides a binding requirement to assess and review progress on the countries’ action plans and will require countries to continuously upgrade their commitments and will not allow backtracking. (Fig. 4)

Climate Change Talk - King's College London
The Paris Agreement is a legal instrument that will guide the process for universally acting on climate change. It is a hybrid of legally binding and non-binding provisions based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and capacities in the light of different national circumstances. How can Paris get us to the 2 degree or even 1.5 degree goal then?

The world did not expect the Paris Agreement to secure commitments to immediately reach that goal, but rather agree on a process that will get us there. With the Agreement, the world can say we have a chance now to reach our goal which we couldn’t say if there were no-agreement. Decisions to give effect to the Agreement include clauses on measures of mitigation, adaptation, loss and damages, finance, technology development and transfer, capacity building, transparency of action and support, global stocktake, and facilitating implementation and compliance. While the agreement does not take effect until 2020, provision for Enhanced Action prior to 2020 is given so that implementation begins tomorrow including countries will need to mobilize resources, including the $100 billion pledged by developed countries. Countries agreed in Paris to take rigorous action to promote climate action, ramp up financing and begin implementation of respective climate plans. In 2018 countries will have an opportunity to review their collective effort against the global goals prior to formally submitting their national contributions to the new agreement and this exercise will be repeated every five years.

It is a scientifically proven and accepted fact that the world has already warmed by 0.85 degrees since industrialization and the pace is picking up. Is it too little too late? What seems to be the undeniable truth is the more we delay, the more we pay. Whether it is doable, taking climate action now is absolutely imperative to halt the extreme weather events due to ACD impacts and the consequential calamities brought to humankind and this planet we all call our home.

(THE END)

在2015年12月12日巴黎气候峰会的闭幕会上通过了《巴黎协议》,联合国秘书长潘基文欢呼“这是人类和地球一个巨大的胜利”。

这是首次这个几乎代表全世界所有国家的195个缔约成员在联合国气候峰会上,在所有关键问题上都能够达成了协议。但这协议是否来得太迟及效力太小呢?这次巴黎峰会能够达成协议,是否采取了与以往峰会不同的策略?

全球针对气候变化所作出的努力由开始到今年的巴黎峰会已经历了24年的发展演变。 (图1)谈判开始自1991年并在1992年里约峰会上制定了一套基本的管理制度, 但并没有设定任何具法律约束力的碳排放目标(行动Ⅰ)。1997年的《京都协议书》采用了由上而下的规管方法,并协定温室气体排放上限,具法律约束力的详细条文,设定严格的计算标准和合规管理机制,和明确区分发展国家和发展中国家的角色地位。 《京都协议书》采用强有力的法律和技术标准,但结果导致参与的成员数目萎缩,最后参与的成员只能代表全球碳排放量的13%而已(行动Ⅱ)。 (图2)

有别于京都,2009年哥本哈根/坎昆气候峰会采取了一个自下而上的协议策略,在哥本哈根协议制定了各国并行但不具约束力的框架,然后在坎昆进一步落实了框架下的实施细则。 哥本哈根/坎昆峰会成功争取较多的成员出席峰会,但所订目标并不进取,减排承诺远低于不超出2摄氏度气候温度变化的目标(行动Ⅲ)。(图3)

2011德班峰会发起了行动Ⅳ,进一步加强各国间的碳减排行动,并决议在第二十一届巴黎气候峰会时达成最终协议,及由2020年开始实施。 对那些先前未能达到目标的峰会,我们对这次巴黎峰会寄予什么期待呢? 国际气候组织曾采取什么策略及以什么角色去完成使命呢?

从这个联合国气候变化峰会演变过程看来,很清晰地看到国际气候组织可以有3个模式去发挥作用及完成使命。

1. 采取一个制约性的模式,所强加的责任和义务不会公平对待所有国家,有些国家会得益较多,有些国家会得益较少,但制约性模式不一定会令成员完全顺从。

2. 采取一个合约性的模式,把各个国家的承诺记录在案,作为交换国与国之间彼此的承诺,由于气候变化所产生的问题实质牵涉各个国家的内部施政,要令任何协议可以成功推动,都要让参与国得到实质利益并且需要符合各国的实际国情。

3. 采取一个基于国家自己意愿而采取行动的促进性模式,国际气候组织能通过促进,鼓励和增援提供协助,亦通过行动的透明度对成员施以软压力从而加强推动力。

很显然巴黎峰会需要采取一种混合式的方法。这将结合了自上而下和自下而上的两种方法,一方面允许国家具弹性地去参与,勇于作出尝试和提高志向抱负,另一方面加上法规性的国际条例,以体现透明的问责性和互惠性。在巴黎峰会召开前,这些工作早在2013年的华沙峰会和2014年的利马峰会已经奠定了基础,缔约成员提前被邀请去交流及提议他们个别的“国家自主贡献预案(INDC)”,故此巴黎峰会的结果是一个带有不同元素的综合协议 – 一个具国际法规地位的核心盟约,盟约内的附件以刊载各国的“自主贡献建议”,和第二十一届气候峰会和之后订定的各项决议。

那么巴黎协议内容的重中之重是什么呢?

这次的巴黎协议向全世界发送了一个积极及正面信息,那就是所有国家都决心要面对及解决气候变化所带来的问题。该协议提供了一个向前迈进的方向及框架,以限制全球气候温度上升幅度远低于2摄氏度甚至是低于1.5摄氏度。这是一个雄心勃勃、非静止及具动力和普及全人类的协议,它涵盖所有国家和所有性质的排放,并具备一个运作透明的机制组织,以建立国际间的互信和信心。该协议要求所有国家根据自身实际情况采取相应行动。它提供了一个有约束力的要求,检测和审查各国的行动计划及进展,并要求各国应该不断提升承诺的目标及抱负,同时不允许中途放弃或降低标准。(图4)

巴黎协议将成为一份严肃的法律文件,对全球未来如何应对气候变化提供一个指导框架。 基于各国国情不同,所以在面对共同的问题上各自有不同的承担和所肩负的责任,在此基础上达成了一个综合性既具法律约束力的盟约,而又具备非约束性的规则条文。那么巴黎协议如何可以引领我们实现温度上升幅度低于2摄氏度甚至是1.5摄氏度的目标呢?

全世界都没有期望巴黎协议可以一次性取得所有的承诺去达到这目标,更重要的是全球可对如何向目标走下去达成共识。有了这个协议,世界人民可以说我们现在有机会去实现我们的目标了,如果没有达成协议,我们就不能这样说。促使推行该协议的条款内容包括缓解措施、适应方法、损失和破坏处理、资金投入、技术开发和转让、承担能力提升、行动和支援的透明度、全球盘点、促进贯彻执行和遵守规条等。虽然巴黎协议要到2020年才正式生效,但已有条文规定需要巴黎会议后马上展开行动,包括个别国家需要马上调动资源,以及承诺拿出1000亿美元的发达国家都需开始贯彻执行。在巴黎,各国同意采取积极凛冽的促进应对气候变化措施,加大融资,并开始实施各自的气候计划。在2018年,他们在正式提交各个国家对新协议的贡献之前,各国将有机会审查各自的气候计划对全球目标的集体效应,这项工作将每五年进行一次。

全球温度自19世纪工业时代以来已经上升了0.85度,而且上升的速度正在加快,这是一个经过科学认证及确认的事实,那我们现在的行动是不是太微小也太迟了呢?但不可否认的事实是,我们越是拖延,将会付出的代价越大。不管它是否可达既定目标,现在采取行动来应对气候变化对于阻止人为因素导致的极端天气事件的发生而间接给人类和这个星球(我们称之为家)带来不幸是绝对必要的。

(全文终)

资料来源:
http://newsroom.unfcc.int/unfcc-newsroom/finale_cop21/
http://www.un.org/…/un-chief-hails-new-climate-change-agre…/
http://www.un.org/…/un-chief-remains-encouraged-by-progres…/
http://www.un.org/…/un-chief-calls-on-civil-society-to-kee…/
http://www.un.org/…/un-chief-offers-thanks-to-civil-socity…/
http://www.un.org/…/ban-hails-paris-climate-accord-as-heal…/
http://www.un.org/sustainablede…/…/the-paris-agreement-faqs/
“GLOBE SERIES” <info@globeseries.com>
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change FCCC/cp/2015/L.9/Rev.1 Previewing the Paris Climate Change Conference by Daniel Bodansky, Arizona State University

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